6 Reasons Tesla’s $9 Trillion Robotaxi Dreams Will Likely Fail (NASDAQ:TSLA)

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Cathie Wood is renowned for her, let’s say, somewhat optimistic forecasts on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA).

Cathie Wood’s Tesla Price Forecasts For 2029

  • Bear Case Target: $2,000 per share by 2029 (25th percentile outcome)
  • Base Case/Expected Value Target: $2,600

Year Amazon R&D (Millions) Amazon Capex (Millions) Total Growth Spending (Millions)
2024 $87,166 $62,478 $149,644
2025 $97,433 $68,367 $165,800
2026 $107,210 $65,861 $173,071
2027 $108,552 $73,063 $181,615
2028 $118,013 $72,638 $190,651
2029 $127,446 $75,651 $203,097
Total $645,820 $418,058 $1,063,878
Annual Growth Rate 7.9% 3.9% 6.3%

Year Tesla R&D (Millions) Tesla Capex (Millions) Total Growth Spending (Millions)
2024 $4,359 $10,966 $15,325
2025 $4,705 $10,770 $15,475
2026 $5,532 $10,675 $16,207
2027 $212 $10,120 $10,332
2028 $7,613 $11,591 $19,204
2029 $9,467 $12,572 $22,039
Total $31,888 $66,694 $98,582
Annual Growth Rate 16.8% 2.8% 7.5%

Year Alphabet R&D (Millions) Alphabet Capex (Millions) Total Growth Spending (Millions)
2024 $49,290 $47,945 $97,235
2025 $53,957 $50,582 $104,539
2026 $57,752 $52,096 $109,848
2027 $65,003 $55,349 $120,352
2028 $71,025 $55,747 $126,772
2029 $77,140 $57,323 $134,463
Total $374,167 $319,042 $693,209
Annual Growth Rate 9.4% 3.6% 6.7%

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2023 $574,785 $36,658 $109,538 $36,852 $30,425
2024 $638,776 $62,608 $136,848 $61,764 $48,618
2025 $710,140 $76,348 $157,314 $77,012 $62,584
2026 $785,929 $104,744 $181,735 $97,992 $79,586
2027 $860,354 $127,536 $210,185 $116,594 $95,778
2028 $924,758 $149,486 $241,558 $136,897 $112,630
2029 $1,008,330 $176,399 $276,364 $163,368 $135,349
Annualized Growth 2024-2029 9.8% 41.9% 18.4% 28.2% 28.2%
Cumulative 2024-2029 $4,928,287 $697,121 $1,204,004 $653,627 $534,545

Year Company Free Cash Flow (USD)
2028 (consensus forecast) Amazon $149,486,000,000
2022 Saudi Aramco $148,540,000,000
2022 Apple $111,440,000,000
2018 Saudi Aramco $111,070,000,000
2021 Saudi Aramco $107,510,000,000
2021 Apple $95,010,000,000
2019 Saudi Aramco $85,670,000,000
2020 Apple $73,430,000,000
2021 Alphabet $67,012,000,000
2022 Microsoft $63,330,000,000
2019 Apple $63,040,000,000
2022 Alphabet $60,010,000,000
2018 Apple $58,360,000,000
2021 Microsoft $56,710,000,000
2020 Saudi Aramco $49,040,000,000
2020 Alphabet $42,843,000,000
2020 Microsoft $40,110,000,000
2019 Microsoft $38,470,000,000
2019 Alphabet $36,990,000,000
2018 Microsoft $32,470,000,000
Total $1,490,541,000,000
% Total From Amazon In 2028 Alone 10.03%

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2023 $304,296 $74,020 $121,040 $84,952 $71,645
2024 $339,262 $87,896 $137,389 $98,447 $83,080
2025 $376,274 $100,457 $159,429 $111,994 $95,268
2026 $411,304 $114,535 $174,592 $122,527 $104,229
2027 $436,139 $149,000 $192,782 $134,336 $116,489
2028 $497,207 $167,819 $221,758 $156,706 $136,825
2029 $585,828 $207,213 $286,790 $234,327 $197,292
Annualized Growth 2023-2029 11.5353% 18.7166% 15.4620% 18.4245% 18.3915%
Cumulative 2024-2029 $2,646,014 $826,920 $1,172,740 $858,337 $733,183

  • January 10, 2024